CEASEFIRE! huh?

The mysterious ending of the "12 Day War"

When I first started thinking about writing a substack a couple years ago, I decided that I would resist the temptation to comment on breaking news. I was clear that my role was not to pretend to be a reporter, or even a journalist, someone standing on the front lines and commenting on the day’s events. No, I saw myself standing back, keeping a certain distance, taking the longer view, and trying to bring to the conversation some deeper understanding of the forces at play.

But, at the moment, I find that I have no distance from what’s happening, and more than anything else I feel the need to rant. To just share my feelings of bewilderment and intense disappointment as Israel moves into a ceasefire which was the last thing I expected.

I’m aware of the amazing things that the IDF has achieved, and I’ve listened to the pundits reassuring us that Iran’s march to a nuclear weapon has been set back by years. I can certainly appreciate how much stress the war with Iran has placed on Israel’s economy, its resources and its population. So, I’ve tried to convince myself that I ought to be happy and grateful for how things have turned out. And the media certainly does its part to reassure us that it’s a time for celebration.

But, in every quiet moment, I notice that I feel no sense of the exhilaration of victory—just a dull ache of disappointment and a feeling of dread. And I find myself wondering: Are there others who feel the same way? Is the Israeli government just putting on a brave face to downplay a brazen act of betrayal?

I remember how after the IDF’s decisive military victories over Hamas in recent years, the media would always feature a grinning Gazan sitting among the ruins flashing a “V” sign for victory. Does anyone doubt that the Iranians will now proclaim their own victory over the Zionist invaders?

On the X platform various pundits are already asking their readers to vote: “Who do you think won the war between Israel and Iran?” Needless to say, on the many anti-Zionist hate sites that flourish on X, the Mullahs always win hands down. Meanwhile, the Narrative has the opportunity to patch and mend itself to live another day in the alternate reality in which it thrives.

Which leaves me wondering… What could be Trump’s rationale for stepping in and pressing the pause button, an action which gives the Iranian regime a chance to regain its balance, rally its troops and begin plotting its revenge?

Was this an unexpected betrayal at the hands of the man whom we trusted? Did Trump do this because he wanted the Nobel Peace Prize? Or because he liked the sound of “The 12 Days War?” Or because he wanted to show everybody who’s The Boss?

Or are we still engaged in witnessing a theatrical production starring Donald Trump in the role of Gandalf the White and Steve Witkoff as his faithful, optimistic and hopelessly naïve sidekick? Their last performance was so skillfully played that top IRCG commanders and nuclear scientists all slept peacefully in their beds for their last night on earth.

I’m inviting your comments and speculations. What’s really going on?